Cairo - syâmil Sultanuv is well-known Russian experts and observers. He had been a special correspondent Don Daily (to day) in 1991 and the daily editorial director Zavtara (tomorrow) in 1994. Was a member of the national board of the Russian people in 1995 and had been a vice chairman of the International Study Centre for Regional Economic and assistant chairman Aqalim Party of Russia.
Sultanuv legislativ Doma was a member of Russia from 2003 to 2005. Now he was the chairman of Center for Strategic Studies Russia - Islamic World. In addition to an expert about the condition of futurology Islamic world and Russia, also qualified Sultonov analyze the situation in contemporary Russia, China, America and Europe.
He was born in 1952 in Uzbekistan and was graduated from Moscow University institute for International Relations, he has chaired the scientific community at that institution. In 1989 he had become vice president of foreign economics faculty dean at the university.
Here are excerpts of an interview with Markaz Filistini Lili'lam (Palestinian Information Centre):
PIP: First, how do you view the situation of international and Middle East region amid a number of changes now?
SS: Let me first start sticking the general theme of most of the world that can enter the big themes "unclear situation." This goes back to the world economic crisis and governance crises the world now. Crisis in Europe, America, Japan and other major countries are currently no signs of a clear solution to the crisis that led to the determination of policy in the west and Japan.
Another problem is the relationship between America and China. On the one hand it seems the two countries need each other from an economic standpoint. But on the other hand, confrontation, competition and challenge each other between the two is so strong. Not only in the energy sector specifically, but involve other sectors that affect the political and military decisions.
While this can be concluded that the single pole American hegemony over the world will end that has been controlling the world over the last 20 years. But until now, frankly, there is no world system that became the American substitute candidate. The situation that occurred obscurity is currently rules the world now.
The danger, obscurity is precisely the situation led the world war. This war arena is not North Korea, Europe, Latin Amerik but there are three geographic areas that are likely to become a candidate for the arena of war; the Middle East, Iran and Kaukas. For example, if a war in the Middle East, the Israelis took part in it so that Americans should be forced to intervene. This nature of the world war. Or Iran will be attacked, and China will not remain silent because he will support Iran. Because Iran's dire need of Iran relied upon energy (gas and oil).
PIP: How do you view the current Arab revolution and its future?
SS: Factors confusion and blur in the world today providing a direct influence to the Arab revolution today. I would like to emphasize that what is happening in Arabic is not the revolutions in several Arab countries, but "an Arab revolution" that will continue belanjut one to two dekake until results are visible in the form of the desired changes. This is proven historically as happened in Iran, Russia, and others. In Russia the revolution occurred in 1917 and lasted until 1936.
Problem drivers of this revolution, in my opinion it is a revolution to find identity and identity. The system of secularism, liberalism, communism, and nationalism has failed. I see the identity emerging from the Islamic revolution is very strong. But I think also, the problem is there is no real practical Islamic political program that can help realize the hopes and ideals of Arab nations that now make revolution.
When I talk about political Islam, I mean is in general a broad scope. For example, we find the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is an organization that develops its political system great. This organization has a great history. this is one big factor revolution. He has a clear involvement in this revolution. But unfortunately, they do not have the economic planing to advance the situation of life in Egypt. When I asked them whether IM has a plan to control the economic crisis currently faced by Egypt? I do not get a convincing answer. When the Egyptians out of their homes looking for food because of hunger, what will you give? I do not find a convincing answer. Likewise, in force in Egypt, Yemen and Tunisia.
When I talk about the ideology of political Islam in the practical level, whether they will follow the system such as Turkey or Iran's system, or a particular system? It is a matter of intellectual elites in the Arab region which has a large gap with the nation. This is a big challenge for people who do the revolution.
There are two examples of the Islamic revolution of Iran and Turkey. Islamic Revolution has shown its feasibility in developing a new system to replace the previous outdated system. Examples of their agreement with the secular military institution in Turkey and their ideas prove successful until now. The gap could be trimmed.
PIP: Hamas and Fatah have signed a draft treaty of reconciliation, in your opinion whether this will last long?
SS: In my view Fatah can not be regarded as an independent force. Fatah political performance depends on the American and Israeli politics. So of course we recognize Israel bawha anti any kind that smells of reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas. Although there kontrdiksi Israeli politics towards reconciliation. On the one hand, Palestinian negotiator says Israel does not represent the Palestinians and impossible to negotiate with the group on behalf of the Palestinians entirely. On the other hand Israel says if reconciliation with Fatah against Hamas.
Here there are two problems: first, the best situation for Israel is no war and no peace. It's very calming Israel because negotiations do not produce anything. Secondly, I believe, that is pushing Abbas to reconcile with Hamas is American. Why? Because there are groups in the United States government does not want to tired in the Middle East and wants to soothe some of the problems that cause hot situation so that they can handle other problems.
It is a game. I never said that America does not want war now. He is not ready to face a war that could become a war would drag the world. That's because they failed in Afghanistan and Iraq. Besides, America does not have adequate forces to deal with this kind of war.
In 2003, when the American Minister of Defense Rumsfeld was then asked about the machete Iraq, he replied with a bright, "I have 18,000 troops, give me 45,000 troops to determine the war." But America is not possible to reach that number because it can not be deployed one front.
Thus, the Arab revolution menggolakkan Intifada or war in the region may not be ready to face America. Therefore, United need to calm the Palestinian problem. Because this type of war will lead to tragedy for the western economy and western culture that Israel should keep his job. measures to encourage reconciliation was also to prove that it is siding with the Middle East so that should support the reconciliation of Fatah and Hamas. I think America will not hinder the declaration of a Palestinian state in September.
PIP: In commemoration "Nakba" last May, how do you see the future of the entity of Israel?
SS: With frankly, I judge Israel on the verge of destruction. This will occur between 15 to 20 years. Because this is an artificial state. There have been world war between the two streams of the Soviet Union and the United States. Sovier Union was destroyed. Today, America does not build its plans in the future to survive because he entered a coalition with Israel. There is a growing political lobby in America who now continue to aggressively criticize the relationship with Israel as a relationship involving the United States to dilemaa-dilemma variety. American relations with Israel is considered to be contrary to American interests in the Middle East and relations with the Islamic world. Last year we hear criticism of General Petraeus against Israel. These generals who have a future interest in the next government. He included the military elite who have positions in policy making in the United States.
Source: InfoPalestina
